In a volatile economic climate marked by a 50% rise in oil prices due to the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, the US economy is projected to be less affected than global markets.
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The US economy maintains strong growth through stimulus and easing, despite a slowdown from immigration reform which reduces workforce growth and wage increases. Consumer spending remains buoyant, inflation pressures build, and the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates further, supporting ongoing economic stability.
Entrepreneurs and consumers are cautious due to political uncertainty. However, shifts, including narrow margins in Congress and the election calendar, are prompting resolutions on key policies, which could bring more certainty and liquidity later in 2025 and into 2026.